NAIROBI: Gulf states fear that another US-Israeli attack on a better-prepared Iran could unleash an even more destructive war across the region, leaving them to pick up the pieces.
“We find ourselves drawn within a crisis that we worked diplomatically very hard to try to avert,” Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE’s president, told the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain yesterday. “We are clearly seeking a political off-ramp.”
President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the US and Israel would “finish the job” in Iran. Trump has ruled out fresh strikes before tomorrow’s US midterm elections, but has left open the possibility of renewed attacks while peace talks remain deadlocked.
Fresh fighting would inflict further damage on a region battered by months of war. Iran has fired thousands of missiles and drones at Gulf states, striking sites including oil facilities, airports and power plants. The attacks have killed and injured dozens of civilians and roiled regional economies. The International Monetary Fund predicts Saudi Arabia’s economy will shrink 3.3% this year, with steeper contractions expected in Kuwait and Qatar.
“I have not heard a single Gulf official or civilian support renewed US-Israeli strikes on Iran, but the majority sense a new round is imminent,” said Mohammed al-Basha, an associate fellow for international security at the Royal United Services Institute.
“They sense Iran this round will be more aggressive and will not respect the rules of engagement that were previously observed.”
Across the region, officials fear another round of fighting could prove even more destructive than the last.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told the forum on Saturday he was “extremely worried” about fresh hostilities. “The second round will be more dangerous, more destructive, and it will lead to nowhere,” he said. “We have to draw lessons from the past.”
Iran has elevated those fears with fresh threats of a wider war. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Saturday ordered commanders to prepare for immediate retaliation without geographical limits, and expand their list of potential US and Israeli targets. Iran’s army warned that another US-Israeli attack would spread the war across a much larger area.
“If the enemies resume military or terrorist attacks, it is the Islamic Republic’s armed forces and the Iranian nation who will determine the time and conditions for its end,” Khamanei said in a statement posted on Telegram. Iranian media yesterday highlighted Khamenei’s order that the military respond to any new attacks “without geographic limitations.”
Months of airstrikes have failed to wipe out Iran’s ability to manufacture missiles and drones. Tehran has preserved enough production capacity to replenish its arsenal, Western officials said in October. One said Iran remained well stocked with ballistic missiles and some anti-ship weapons, and that Russia was also supplying missiles.
By early October, Iran had fired more than 4,000 Shahed drones and at least 2,000 ballistic missiles since the war began on Feb 28. Western intelligence assessments in June indicated Tehran still held about three quarter of its pre-war munitions, although its current stockpile is unclear.
“Iran is much better prepared for another round of fighting,” said Emile Hokayem, director of regional security and senior fellow for Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Tehran’s response to the Feb 28 attacks showed it had learned from previous failures and developed a more sophisticated military strategy, Hokayem said. “It wasn’t a victory for Iran, but it showed that the Iranians could match their adversaries and that their military institutions are capable of learning and adapting.” — Bloomberg